CRYSTAL SPITBALLING

Predictions about the albums and singles that will top the year-end charts, critics' polls and awards.

December is a hectic month for critics. Movie pundits have been complaining for the last couple of weeks that they still haven't had the chance to see all the buzzy Oscar bait before having to make their own best-of-the-year picks.

They think they've got it tough? They should try being rock critics at SPIN. In its effort to get a jump on the competition, every year SPIN runs its artist, albums and singles of the year in its January issue. Sounds reasonable, until you realize that said issue has to hit newsstands the first week of December – and that, magazine production schedules being what they are, the SPINsters have to start compiling the issue in mid-October. Imagine if the New York Film Critics Circle had to announce their awards with nearly a third of the year left to play out.

Anyway, we'll be seeing that SPIN issue any day now, and next Tuesday night Fox broadcasts the Billboard Music Awards, which basically reveals the top sellers and radio hits of the year. (Billboard's full year-end charts don't hit newsstands till the week before Christmas.) So now's as good a time as any to make some early predictions – which, I am happy to report, are a bit less predictable than usual this year.

SPIN: It's funny, when SPIN launched 20 years ago, they were the left-of-center champion of alternative rock – from alternaweenie classics like the Smiths to true weirdos like Jandek. But now, with Pitchfork having taken over the indie-snobbery and Rolling Stone hyping acts on both the left and right sides of the dial, SPIN has become virtually middle-of-the-road. Which is what makes their early awards so useful: they've become a decent bellwether for the other magazines' lists. SPIN has at times been admirably quirky, naming "your hard drive" the album of the year after the Napster explosion, or giving the prize to System of a Down's Toxicity in 2001, before critics outside of metal circles (or radio listeners) had come to appreciate the band. But they've been more predictable lately. Expect repeat winners the White Stripes and Kanye West to contend for the top slots, with an outside shot for a well-reviewed Fiona Apple. They will also likely namecheck such Pitchfork favorites as Bloc Party, Sufjan Stevens, Broken Social Scene and Clap Your Hands Say Yeah, but don't expect any of those in the top slot unless there's a huge upset.

Billboard: The only reason to watch their schlocky awards telecast is to see who wound up on top of the year-end charts; when Billboard says that, say, "In Da Club" is the top song of 2003 or "Yeah!" is the top song of 2004, they've got the hard data to back it up. What's fascinating about the album race this year is that CD sales have been so dreadful all year, there could be some real upsets. Of course, expect 50 Cent to take home a few prizes – by last spring, The Massacre was pretty much the odds-on favorite to be the year's biggest seller. But then, funny: the album's sales stalled at 4 million over the summer, and Mariah Carey's album lodged in the Top 10 and wouldn't die. With both Fitty and Mariah certified at quadruple-platinum, with albums that came out weeks apart last spring, it's anyone's guess who wound up on top. There's even a third horse in the race: Green Day, whose late-2004 juggernaut American Idiot spun off four big radio hits and rarely left the Top 20. Interestingly, Billboard's "chart year" for data-compiling purposes runs from December–November and includes the previous year's Thanksgiving sales, which works in Green Day's favor: Idiot came out in October and sold hugely through the '04 holiday season. Upsetting Fitty and Mariah would be the capper to GD's unlikely year-long comeback.

Rolling Stone: Wisely, RS gives itself until the end of the year to name its favorites, although their old habit of waiting until February, when the Readers' Poll results came in, has given way in recent years to late-December announcements. Predicting their top picks means pitting their hard-working Gen-X/Y critic staff against their greying senior editorship and splitting the difference – the hip-hop generation vs. the Springsteen generation. One can't go strictly by the star ratings the magazine assigned to new records during the year; underrated records that grow in stature during the year might make their Top 10 by year-end. But for the record, the only albums to receive five-star or four-and-a-half-star reviews all year were by Kanye, the White Stripes and, predictably, the Rolling Stones (surely editor Jann Wenner's favorite). On the Mick n' Keef tip, expect newly-hipped-up oldster Paul McCartney to make a decent showing. On the younger side, expect Common (another Kanye production) to finish strong in a weak year for hip-hop, and Beck, who turned in a non-showy but well-liked album, got bigger props from RS than pretty much any other outlet. Finally, I'm predicting strong results from ethereal jam-rockers My Morning Jacket – the kind of indie-cred band RS can get behind, as they appeal to scenesters and jam-band stalwarts in equal measure. (Not for nothing is boomer-rock raconteur Cameron Crowe a major fan.) Oh, and it doesn't hurt that the MMJ record, Z, is actually stellar.

Pitchfork: No My Morning Jacket for these guys; Pitchfork patted them on the head with a polite 7.6 rating (about three-and-a-half stars) in October. The 'forkers pride themselves on their quirks, naming then-undiscovered Norwegian dance-pop starlet Annie their big winner for 2004. So who knows what they've got in mind? Nonetheless, a quick scan of their 9.0-or-better reviews dredges up scenester faves Wolf Parade, Animal Collective, Deerhoof, the New Pornographers, Sleater-Kinney and, again, Clap Your Hands and Sufjan. Interestingly, though, Pitchfork also went crazy for Kanye West's Late Registration, giving it a nearly-perfect 9.5, their highest rating on a new record all year. You know an act has the hype machine working for him when both Rolling Stone and Pitchfork rate his album an instant "Classic."

The Village Voice/Pazz and Jop: Covering pundits across mainstream and alternative publications, but overwhelmingly dominated by New Yorkers, the dominant rock critics' poll (in which I now take part) comes closest to conferring critical authority on records – if rock were film, Pazz and Jop would be like the New York Film Critics, National Board of Review and Independent Spirit Awards combined. With OutKast postponing their latest to early '06 and the late-blooming Arcade Fire record more than a year old, expect Kanye to clean up here, too – hip-hop albums routinely unite both scenester-snobs and mainstream pundits. However, I see two records that could give Kanye a run for his letterman's sweater: Bloc Party, a critics' fave with a multicultural lineup and a very catchy record; and, if memories aren't too short, M.I.A. – the London-based, South Asian rapper-cum-firebrand, who arrived amid massive hype last winter and wowed a Knitting Factory crowd last spring. If rock critics could invent an act, they would have invented M.I.A. Speaking of giving good club shows, it will be interesting to see if one of the favorites of the downtown and Brooklyn scenes , like Clap Your Hands Say Yeah or the Hold Steady, makes a strong showing. Finally, long-beloved acts "graduating" to new levels of artistry should see some love, especially Sufjan and the New Pornographers, who each made arguably their strongest records this year. And the poll that gave mad props three years ago to record label–fighters Wilco will likely also show big love to long-shelved comeback girl Fiona Apple.

Grammys: To predict what the Recording Academy's going to do, you have to turn off most of your critical faculties and think, If I were a middle-aged record exec with pretensions toward taste, what would I love? Here again, it's probably Kanye's year, but because the Grammy year starts in October (which is insane, but nevermind), U2 will probably make a strong showing with their record from last November. (Green Day squeaked into eligibility last year, otherwise they'd clean up too; still, expect the "Boulevard of Broken Dreams" single to be a contender.) But the biggest beneficiary of Grammy love this year will likely be Mariah, who famously got snubbed for award after award at the big show in 1995, the apex of her mid-'90s popularity, by an ascendant Alanis Morrisette. A decade later, with Alanis a nonentity, the field is clear for a late-blooming Carey lovefest, which comes complete with a post-Glitter comeback story. Mariah's just lucky that that new Unplugged album by Grammy princess Alicia Keys came out too late in the year to qualify.

I've been totally focused on albums here, which is a bit silly in the Age Of iTunes. So before I forget...

Singles: I've been saying it all year, I'll say it again: the song to watch in all of the polls and charts is Kelly Clarkson's "Since U Been Gone," loved by more snobby critics than most of them would care to admit. Any of the major critics' polls – SPIN, RS, Pazz and Jop – could name this the year's top single. That is, unless Kanye West cleans up here too with the smash "Gold Digger." What I'm really rooting for Kanye to do is pull off an upset in Billboard, where Mariah Carey's "We Belong Together" was an unstoppable summer juggernaut, topping the charts for four months, and was the odds-on winner of Song of the Year until "Gold Digger" spent three months at #1 itself. Still, late-in-the-year hits (even those that appear before Labor Day) usually lose in Billboard, so Carey's probably a lock. The only other big pop songs that may finish strong here or on the critics' lists are Gwen Stefani's "Hollaback Girl" (the involvement of Pharrell Williams helps it with critics) and Green Day's rock-to-pop crossover "Boulevard of Broken Dreams," which, like Clarkson's hit, peaked at #2 on the charts but hung around forever. Finally, expect some of the critics – most likely at SPIN and RS – to give bigger props to Gorillaz's smash single "Feel Good Inc." than its accompanying album.

The race is on! Let's see how right I am in about two months.